Prices expected to slide toward EUR 5.83 per kilo next week.
Analysts covering the Norwegian salmon market expect prices to fall in week 26 to around EUR 5.83/kg (USD 6.77/kg). That represents a decline from the current week’s estimated level of approximately EUR 5.93–6.00/kg (USD 6.88–6.97/kg). The consensus points to a drop of roughly EUR 0.10–0.17/kg week on week.
Norwegian seafood exports reached 32,744 tonnes in the most recent reported week, up 18.4% year on year and 5.7% week on week. Fresh whole salmon exports were fairly stable on the week, though frozen fillet shipments jumped 54% week on week. Demand in euro terms came in at EUR 207m, up 14% year on year and 6% week on week, lifted by strong fresh fillet pricing. Year-to-date demand growth stands at 5.7%, with Q2 running at 7.7% year on year. Analysts note that supply has been surprisingly strong in recent weeks and that the market appears to be correcting. One source reports that volume-weighted Q2 prices are tracking well below consensus at around EUR 6.70/kg. Average harvest weight was up 1.0% year on year but down 6% week on week.
Vessel-tracking models suggest strong harvesting from all major Norwegian producers during Q2, with volumes likely exceeding expectations across the board. Analysts anticipate that somewhat lower prices will bring demand growth closer to a more typical seasonal range of around 6% heading into the summer period. The premium for larger fish is reportedly returning this week, adding approximately EUR 0.36/kg (USD 0.42/kg) for big fish categories.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
