SEB has lowered its salmon price forecasts and warned that earnings expectations for the sector remain too optimistic ahead of the second-quarter reporting season in August.
The bank expects global salmon supply to grow slightly faster than previously forecast after Norwegian biomass data for May showed stronger-than-expected fish growth. Combined with weaker salmon prices, that has prompted it to cut its price assumptions for the next three years.
SEB now expects salmon prices to average NOK 75 per kg in 2026 and NOK 82 per kg in both 2027 and 2028, reflecting a slower recovery than previously anticipated. The average market price during the second quarter was NOK 73 per kg, while prices at the start of the third quarter have also remained weak.
As a result, analyst Sander Lie expects company earnings to come under pressure. SEB’s forecasts for 2026 operating profit (EBIT) are between 7% and 13% below the current market consensus for the major listed salmon farmers, with its 2027 estimates also sitting below consensus.
The bank believes this leaves scope for analysts across the market to cut their forecasts as companies report second-quarter results in August.
SEB retained Hold recommendations on Bakkafrost, Grieg Seafood and Lerøy Seafood Group, while maintaining Buy ratings on Mowi and SalMar.
SalMar remains the bank’s preferred stock in the sector. Lie said the company offers upside potential to harvest volumes, benefits from low production costs and a relatively high share of contracted sales, while also leading the sector on operating margins, free cash flow and shareholder distributions.
