Mowi Q1 headline figures were pre-disclosed, leaving Q2 guidance and dividends as the market focus. SEB analyst Sander Lie maintained a Buy rating and NOK 240 target price against a NOK 194.5 share price.
Mowi guided for stable blended farming costs quarter-on-quarter into Q2, against SEB’s expectation of a slight decline. The higher cost base creates downside risk to Q2 earnings. SEB estimates Q2 guidance will lower its 2026 EBIT forecast by approximately 1%.
The dividend of NOK 2.3 per share beat SEB’s estimate of NOK 1.5 and consensus at NOK 1.6, according to Lie’s note.
Blended farming cost in Q1 came in at EUR 5.46/kg, down 7.3% year-on-year from EUR 5.89/kg. Norway and Scotland posted slightly better margins than expected, partly offsetting weaker results in other regions. Southern Norway was flagged as challenging, while other Norwegian regions performed well.
Q2 harvest guidance of 140,000 tonnes matched SEB and consensus expectations of 139,000 tonnes, with a regional mix slightly more favourable than forecast. Mowi maintained its full-year 2026 volume guidance of 605,000 tonnes. The company reported “seasonally record-high standing biomass in the sea,” with end-of-quarter biomass 0.4% higher year-on-year.
SEB sees scope for minor estimate revisions to 2027–28. With Mowi shares underperforming ahead of the update, Lie characterised the result as stock positive: modest estimate cuts offset by stronger-than-expected payouts may be sufficient to stabilise sentiment.
