Salmon prices are getting a solid and long-awaited lift.
“I must say, you’re hearing prices around NOK 80.00 ($7.92/€6.96) in Oslo, but what we’ve paid recently is based on NOK 75.00 ($7.43/€6.53) to the farmer. 3-6 kg packed today,” a buyer tells SalmonBusiness.
That represents a fairly sharp increase.
“That’s NOK 12.00 ($1.19/€1.04) up. It’s a wild surge. 6+ kg fish has been paid even higher, NOK 77–78 ($7.62–$7.72/€6.70–€6.79),” he adds.
Monday is a holiday
He’s clear about what’s driving the price spike:
“Next week’s only a four-day week. One processor is harvesting less fish this week. The algae have led to people building more biomass. The market isn’t really there. But if we want fish, we have to pay the price. That’s just how it is. Hopefully it holds next week. We always get a little nervous,” he admits.
All sources confirm the upturn.
“Looks like a NOK 10.00 ($0.99/€0.87) jump. Around that,” says a trader.
“3+ kg is going for NOK 73.00 ($7.23/€6.35), 2–3 kg around NOK 65–66 ($6.44–$6.53/€5.66–€5.74). The big producers had a bit less this week, and there are expectations linked to the public holiday on Monday. I don’t believe the prices will hold through next week. Monday and Tuesday maybe, but not beyond Wednesday,” he says.
Price differentiation
“It’s been a good week, but that doesn’t mean next week will be the same,” agrees an exporter.
“The market won’t pay just anything. We’re in a generational shift, so there’s a lot of 3–4 kg fish around. We’re pricing 3–4 kg at NOK 72.00 ($7.13/€6.26) and 4–5 kg at NOK 75.00 ($7.43/€6.53). 2–3 kg is at NOK 65.00 ($6.44/€5.66), and there’s not a lot of 6+ kg available.”
Is this just a blip?
“Yes, because the fish is out there. Some are building biomass, but that will arrive in 2–3 weeks. Then we’ll see a major correction in the market. It would be better to stay at this level for longer. I think NOK 72–73 ($7.13–$7.23/€6.26–€6.35) is sustainable, but not NOK 80.00 ($7.92/€6.96). And as you know, when prices are high, more people slaughter,” she says.
A farmer confirms that price levels are currently all over the place.
“Things have calmed down today, but we’re still seeing NOK 78–79 ($7.72–$7.82/€6.79–€6.87). And we know that if we had another 800 tonnes to sell, we’d likely have to go down to NOK 75–76 ($7.43–$7.52/€6.53–€6.61).”
“But when there’s such a sharp price spike, Fridays tend to be long. It’s a four-day week and a generational shift. Still, the fact that underlying demand seems strong says something — we’re talking 8,000–10,000 more tonnes per week, and some frozen stock that’s now been cleared. People are eating this. If this holds, we’re looking at the same price level as last year,” he points out.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.