Prices expected to slide in week 20.
Analysts forecast Norwegian salmon spot prices at approximately EUR 6.66 (USD 7.83) per kilo in week 20, representing a decline of around EUR 0.55 (USD 0.65) compared to the prior week’s level of roughly EUR 7.21 (USD 8.47). The drop marks a continuation of the seasonal price softening that typically accompanies rising spring volumes.
Week 18 export volumes came in at approximately 26,500 tonnes, down 6% year on year in what was a shortened four-day trading week. Despite the weekly price retreat, the rolling four-week Norwegian export value in EUR terms is running 5.8% above last year. On a single-week basis, export value in EUR was up around 12% year on year, supported by prices that remain elevated compared to the same period in 2025.
Quality grades at multi-year highs
Norwegian Superior and Ordinary graded salmon reached a combined share of 89% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 81.6% in the first quarter of 2025 and the highest first-quarter reading since 2019. The strong quality mix is seen as a positive signal for farmer price realisation during the recent quarter.
Global fishmeal production fell 28% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, with March alone down 38%. Fish oil output declined 12% over the same period. Peruvian fishmeal prices have reached 2,430 USD per metric tonne, up 74% year on year, while fish oil trades at 4,500 USD per metric tonne, up 73%. Tight raw material availability and early fears of fishing shutdowns linked to El Niño conditions are adding upward pressure to feed costs for Norwegian producers reliant on external suppliers.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
