Prices expected to ease as large fish weigh on the market.
Spot prices for Norwegian farmed salmon are expected to ease modestly next week (week 13). One estimate points to around EUR 8.45 (USD 9.71) per kilo, while another sees a slightly firmer EUR 8.45–8.54 (USD 9.71–9.82) range. The implied midpoint is approximately EUR 8.48 (USD 9.74), down from EUR 8.58–8.63 (USD 9.86–9.91) this week.
The decline is linked to a higher share of larger fish, trading at a steep discount to the standard 3–6 kg category.
Export values rise despite lower volumes
Norwegian salmon export volumes in week 11 reached 26,044 tonnes, down 4% year-on-year but up from 25,318 tonnes the previous week. Export value in EUR terms rose 6.4% year-on-year for the week, though the four-week rolling export value has slipped to 0.4% below last year’s level. Exports to China and Hong Kong fell 20% week-on-week but remained 10% higher year-on-year, while EU-bound volumes picked up 14% week-on-week despite being 3% lower year-on-year.
First-quarter 2026 prices are tracking around EUR 7.81 (USD 8.98) per kilo, broadly in line with some analyst estimates but below consensus.
Strong biology, low lice pressure
Implied harvest volumes are approximately 18% above last year, pointing to strong biological performance and fewer fish harvested per kilo. Lice levels remain contained, with four sites exceeding the regulatory threshold in week 11.
ISA suspicions have been recorded at a handful of sites, but analysts see limited risk given their proximity to harvest.
Each week, Salmon Business gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
