Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
Prices climb to EUR 8.60 as supply tightens.
The spot price for week 11 is estimated at around EUR 8.60 (USD 9.35) per kilo, up from approximately EUR 7.10 (USD 7.72) the previous week. This represents an increase of roughly 21% compared with the same week last year.
The rise reflects tightening supply as the industry runs short of harvest-ready fish following elevated slaughter volumes in January and February. Harvest levels are expected to remain around current reduced levels in the coming weeks, according to analysts.
Export volumes fall as Asian demand surges
Norwegian salmon exports totalled 25,318 tonnes last week, down 6.9% year-on-year and 5.3% week-on-week. Export value totalled EUR 181 million (USD 196.9 million), declining 4.1% year-on-year and 1.4% week-on-week.
Demand is expected to strengthen in the coming weeks as higher prices feed through to export values. Exports to China reached 2,425 tonnes, up 118% year-on-year.
China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Vietnam together accounted for 19% of Norwegian fresh whole exports, the highest market share recorded outside the pre–Chinese New Year period.
Easter falls earlier this year than last, though the holiday effect has not yet appeared in the figures and is expected to begin influencing the market in around ten days, analysts say.
Biological conditions support stable outlook
Sea temperatures are broadly in line with previous years, with central Norway running marginally warmer than western Norway, suggesting somewhat stronger near-term growth in that region.
Treatment activity and sea lice levels remain below last year’s figures, leaving overall biological conditions in strong shape.
