Norway’s salmon supply outlook for 2026 has been revised lower, while forecasts for 2027 have been raised, according to Kontali, as weaker biological indicators point to slower harvest growth next year.
In its weekly market update published May 27–28, the research firm said Norway now has fewer fish in the water than at the same point last year, despite broadly stable biomass levels. The weaker pipeline helped drive the downgrade to its 2026 supply forecast.
Spot prices continued to soften in week 22, pressured by high harvest volumes and seasonal market weakness.
Globally, salmonid harvest growth slowed in April, with volumes only marginally higher year-on-year. Feed demand was mixed, with stronger trends in Chile and Europe offset by weaker development in Norway and North America.
Kontali also flagged mounting logistics risks. Air freight capacity into Asia remains constrained by disruption linked to conflict in the Middle East, while higher oil inventories could push up fuel and transport costs.
Separately, Norway’s parliament has voted to abolish the norm price council from 2027, a move Kontali said had been broadly welcomed by the industry.
The upward revision to 2027 forecasts suggests the expected tightening in Norwegian supply may be relatively short-lived.
