Fearnley Securities has lowered its 2026 EBITDA forecast for Nordic Aqua Partners after the company’s first-quarter results showed weaker-than-expected price premiums.
The broker cut its 2026 EBITDA estimate to €9.2 million from €11.5 million, citing a more gradual improvement in realised salmon prices than previously assumed.
Despite the downgrade, Fearnley maintained its Buy recommendation and NOK 120 price target.
The bank said Nordic Aqua’s first-quarter production performance was stronger than expected, with farming costs lower than forecast and biomass rising 62% year-on-year to 5,000 tonnes live weight.
Fearnley expects the company to reach stage two run-rate production during the second half of 2026, which it said should help reduce farming costs further.
The bank also highlighted continued biological performance, the stage two ramp-up and a future investment decision on stage three expansion as key factors that could further de-risk Nordic Aqua’s growth plans towards 20,000 tonnes of production.
