Prices expected to fall sharply into week 26.
Norwegian salmon spot prices are expected to decline sharply in week 26 as strong biological performance and rising biomass continue to increase supply pressure.
Analysts project spot prices of around EUR 5.49/kg ($6.29/kg), down from an estimated EUR 6.12/kg ($7.01/kg) in week 25, a week-on-week decline of approximately EUR 0.63/kg ($0.72/kg). Volume-weighted prices for the second quarter of 2026 are currently tracking at around EUR 6.57/kg ($7.53/kg).
Norwegian salmon biomass reached approximately 870,000 tonnes in May, up 2.6% year on year and the highest level ever recorded for the month. The biomass level is now comparable to that seen in August 2025, raising the possibility that producers could reach biomass constraints earlier than usual this year.
Feed consumption increased 9% year on year during the month, while biomass production rose 11%.
Continued strong supply
Export data also points to continued strong supply. Norwegian salmon export volumes totalled approximately 31,000 tonnes in week 23, up 5% from the same period last year. The rolling four-week export value measured in euros increased 10.6% year on year.
Analysts said the strong May production figures indicate further upside risk to harvest volumes in the months ahead, while increasing the likelihood of additional downward revisions to price forecasts.
Biological conditions in Norway remain favourable. Mortality rates are at record lows for the season, while production has reached record highs. The 2025 generation continues to perform strongly, with feed consumption up 12% year on year and biomass increasing 5%.
Meanwhile, Norway’s updated traffic light system, announced on Friday, resulted in only modest changes to production capacity. One production area remained in the red category and two remained green, resulting in a net increase of approximately 3,000 tonnes of maximum allowable biomass.
The outcome was broadly in line with market expectations and is not expected to materially alter Norwegian production growth in the near term.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
