SEB has cut its salmon price forecasts for 2026-28, citing stronger-than-expected supply growth, currency headwinds, and a slower second quarter than previously anticipated.
The bank’s revised price curve stands at NOK 80/86/85 per kg (~USD 7.60/8.20/8.10) for 2026E/27E/28E, down from NOK 85/90/87 per kg. The revisions push SEB’s EBIT estimates 7-14% below prior forecasts for large-cap producers, with NOK-denominated farmers taking the largest hit, according to analyst Sander Lie.
Global supply grew 13% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with favourable conditions across all major farming regions. SEB has raised its 2026 global supply growth estimate to 2%, up from 0%. The bank now forecasts contractions in both Chile and Norway in 2027.
SEB flags that the sector may be approaching an inflection point, with growth expected to turn negative in coming months. That shift could limit seasonal price declines below historical norms.
The sector has fallen 14% year-to-date, but SEB argues the de-rating is incomplete. At a 2026E P/E of 16x, the sector trades 5% above its 10-year average and 15% above its 3-year average. SEB’s estimates sit 3-8% below consensus for 2026.
SalMar remains SEB’s preferred pick, followed by Mowi. Bakkafrost, Leroy Seafood Group, and Grieg Seafood remain on Hold.
SEB sees better entry points emerging later in the year, once Q1 results clarify cost trajectories and supply momentum becomes easier to read.
