Prices expected to slip further as growth conditions improve.
Analysts project Norwegian salmon spot prices for week 17 at EUR 6.34 (USD 7.46) per kilo, down from approximately EUR 6.62 (USD 7.79) the prior week. The decline of roughly EUR 0.28 (USD 0.33) reflects continued seasonal softening as the second quarter gets off to a slow start. Analysts note that Q2 prices are tracking well below earlier consensus expectations, which had been closer to EUR 8.15 (USD 9.59) per kilo.
Week 15 Norwegian export volumes were down 15% year on year, partly distorted by one day of Easter holiday falling in the period. However, the rolling four-week Norwegian export value is up 5% year on year, pointing to improving demand and easing supply pressure from other regions. Demand growth is primarily driven by Asia, with China a standout contributor, largely offsetting weaker demand from the United States. Analysts see scope for 3% global supply growth in 2026, with Norwegian volumes contributing approximately 2% year-on-year growth.
Favorable seawater temperatures are supporting growth conditions in sea, which is contributing to the downward pressure on prices. In March, Norwegian biomass was down 1.3% year on year, but current conditions suggest improving biological momentum heading into the summer months.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
