Prices hold steady as high supply persists.
Analysts expect Norwegian salmon prices for next week (w21) to come in around EUR 6.84 (USD 8.01) per kilo, roughly flat compared to the current week’s estimated level of EUR 6.75–6.82 (USD 7.91–7.99). The spot price in week 19 was reported at approximately EUR 7.18 (USD 8.42), meaning prices have dropped significantly over the past two weeks. One analyst noted that unless June prices pick up materially, there is downside risk to second-quarter estimates.
Norwegian export volumes in week 19 reached 32,764 tonnes, up 16.6% year on year and 23.5% week on week. Export value came in at EUR 231 million, representing a 33% increase year on year and a 22% rise week on week. Asia continues to drive demand, with shipments to China up 60% year on year. Year-to-date demand is now up 4.6% year on year in EUR terms. Analysts expect demand figures to soften next week as lower export prices feed into the data.
Prices on larger fish remain particularly soft, according to industry sources. Implied harvest weights have increased and now sit 8% above last year, reflecting strong biological conditions. Analysts found it difficult to reconcile the high volumes coming to market with the weak biomass figures reported at the end of March, suggesting record-level productivity. Multiple sources indicated that the current supply level is unlikely to be sustained for much longer.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
