Prices expected flat heading into week 14.
The salmon spot price for week 14 is estimated at EUR 7.77 (USD 8.96) per kilo, unchanged from the previous week, analysts estimate.
The stable outlook follows a first quarter that has seen volume-weighted prices tracking below earlier consensus expectations. Sell-side consensus for Q1 2026 had been around EUR 8.04 (USD 9.27) per kilo, while actual volume-weighted prices appear closer to EUR 7.59–7.68 (USD 8.76–8.86), analysts say. Some downward revision to consensus is expected.
China emerges as key demand growth driver
The Chinese market for Atlantic salmon has expanded rapidly over the past three years, with further acceleration in early 2026, analysts say.
Over the last decade, Asia and the Americas have accounted for roughly three-quarters of global demand growth. With US tariffs weighing on transatlantic trade, Asia, and China in particular, are expected to be the most important drivers of future expansion, analysts say.
Norwegian exports to China are now flowing with minimal friction for the first time in nearly two decades, following the lifting of sanctions, the removal of COVID-19 restrictions, and the normalisation of air freight costs, analysts say.
Industry consolidation in focus
Market attention last week also turned to potential consolidation among Norwegian farmers. One mid-sized producer initiated a strategic review that could result in a sale, with several larger listed companies identified as likely acquirers, analysts say.
Operational challenges and a stretched balance sheet at the company are seen as key drivers behind the review, analysts say. The broader seafood index edged down 0.3 percent last week.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
