Prices set to rebound after post-Easter dip.
Analysts expect Norwegian salmon spot prices to climb to around EUR 6.95 (USD 8.13) per kilo next week, up from an estimated EUR 6.43–6.70 (USD 7.52–7.84) range this week. The move would represent a recovery of roughly EUR 0.35–0.45 (USD 0.40–0.55) per kilo after prices slipped below EUR 6.60 (USD 7.72) in week 16. One analyst noted that Q2 prices are off to a slow start, which could pose downside risk relative to consensus estimates.
Norwegian fresh salmon exports in week 16 reached 30,253 tonnes, up 36.2% year on year and 13.9% week on week. The sharp annual increase reflects the distortion of last year’s Easter falling in the same week. Demand for Norwegian salmon totalled EUR 196 million in week 16, up 16.4% year on year and 5.3% week on week. On a rolling four-week basis, export value in EUR is up 6% year on year, pointing to a genuine improvement in underlying demand. Growth is primarily driven by Asia, particularly China, which largely offsets softer demand from the United States. Exports to non-EU countries rose approximately 13% week on week, while shipments to the six largest EU importing countries increased by around 4%.
Sea lice levels remain low overall, though a lower regulatory threshold meant 11 sites exceeded the limit in week 16, up from four sites in week 15. This could drive some additional harvesting in line with seasonal patterns. One producer reported a new ISA suspicion during the week, but overall biological conditions remain strong.
Each week, SalmonBusiness gathers salmon price forecasts from industry analysts for the week ahead. Unless otherwise stated, prices refer to Superior 3–6 kg salmon, per kilo FCA Oslo, converted using the day’s average exchange rate.
