The salmon market is being weighed down by high slaughter volumes and frozen fish sitting in storage.
“This is absolutely awful,” one trader says of the salmon price and the market. “It simply became far too expensive last Friday. There is a lot of fish coming up, a lot of fish already in circulation, more than the market can absorb. That’s why prices are falling.”
“When that happens, buyers purchase fish, freeze some of it, and place orders,” he says, referring mainly to customers in Europe.
No momentum
“We have bought some fish at the following prices from farmers in northern Norway:
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2–3 kg: NOK 65.00 ($6.50/€5.66)
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3–5 kg: NOK 70.00 ($7.00/€6.09)
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5–6 kg: NOK 69.00 ($6.90/€6.00)
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6+ kg: NOK 67.00–68.00 ($6.70–6.80/€5.83–5.92)
“Chinese New Year doesn’t start until Tuesday in week eight, so nobody is buying fish for Chinese New Year yet. There’s no pull in the airfreight market either. The market has no momentum. And a lot of fish has been sold at those prices,” he continues.
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“We’ve taken a real hit over the past few weeks. There have been insane losses for exporters. Quite a lot of fish is sitting in cold storage, but now nobody is drawing on that stock because it’s so cheap to buy fresh fish. So there’s no quick fix here.”
Ugly losses
“It’s been a dreadful start to the year. And this just tops it all,” one exporter tells SalmonBusiness. “We already knew on Friday that there would be ugly losses.”
“Farmers say they want NOK 70.00 ($7.00/€6.09) for 3–6 kg fish and NOK 68.00 ($6.80/€5.92) for 6+. Customers say they can buy 3–6 kg at NOK 67.00–68.00 ($6.70–6.80/€5.83–5.92) and 6+ at NOK 65.00 ($6.50/€5.66), and that leaves no margin for us. There is absolutely no alignment between the market and what farmers are demanding for next week.”
“On behalf of exporters, we can’t keep absorbing these losses week after week. We have to step away. There is an absurd amount of fish out in the market. You can see that clearly in the export statistics,” he says.
According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, 30,734 tonnes of salmon, converted to round weight, were exported last week. So far this year, Norway has exported 67,939 tonnes, compared with 61,724 tonnes at the same point last year.
“Right now you can buy fish delivered into the market at prices well down in the six-euro range. Frozen inventory is probably priced higher than that. I’ve even heard of people freezing fish now to hold for later.”
Large volumes
“Yes, the market is roughly at that level,” says a buyer. “We’ll see whether we can actually trade at those prices. There has been a huge amount of fish this week, and I see no indication that volumes will be lower next week.”
Another buyer points to a price range of NOK 65.00–70.00 ($6.50–7.00/€5.66–6.09).
“We notice the volumes and prices customers are being offered early on Fridays. That’s at a completely different level from the spot market. But volumes will be very strong regardless of what happens,” he notes.
“Extremely large volumes, far more than expected,” he adds. “It’s the big players who are buying now.”
There is also no support coming from currency markets. President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz and foreign-policy adventures have contributed to a significant weakening of the dollar over the past year. One US dollar now costs NOK 9.82 ($0.98/€0.85).
