Arctic Securities has cut its target price on Aker BioMarine to NOK 115 per share from NOK 120, citing foreign exchange effects, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The shares trade at NOK 101, implying around 15% upside to the revised target.
The adjustment comes ahead of Q1 results scheduled for April 30.
The bank revised its Q1 gross margin estimate for the Human Health Ingredients segment down to 57.5% from 61.8%. The reason: higher capsule sales following deliveries to Costco that began in Q4. Capsules carry roughly double the price of bulk krill oil but generate lower margins.
Arctic Securities models HHI adjusted EBITDA of USD 15.1 million for Q1, with a 44% margin versus 45% in Q1 2025. Group adjusted EBITDA is forecast at USD 13.3 million, approximately 3% below the latest Factset consensus, according to the note authored by Christian Olsen Nordby and Kristoffer Haugland.
Volume and price assumptions for krill oil were left unchanged at 260 metric tonnes (+18.2% year-on-year) and USD 112 per kilogram (+5.6% year-on-year), feeding into HHI revenues of USD 34.2 million.
Arctic Securities flagged Aker BioMarine’s potential M&A process as a key valuation driver. The bank argues a transaction multiple of 15x EBITDA is achievable given a projected ~30% EBITDA compound annual growth rate, supported by positive health claims and growing demand driven in part by GLP-1 drug adoption.
The company’s reporting structure will also change from Q1, with the Emerging Business segment removed. Kori will move to the Consumer Health Products division, with remaining costs allocated to the HQ segment.
