Fearnley Securities has cut its 2026–27 Norwegian salmon price forecast to NOK 82–87/kg, down from NOK 86–90/kg, after NOK appreciation eroded what were otherwise broadly in-line spot prices in EUR terms.
The bank also reduced 2026–27 EPS estimates by 12–11%, citing the revised price path and higher feed costs following a surge in marine ingredient prices. Fearnley said its estimates now sit 6% below consensus for both years, excluding Grieg Seafood.
First-quarter supply grew roughly 12% year-on-year. Based on historical relationships, Fearnley said that level of growth would typically imply a price drop of around 16%. The actual decline was just 3%, according to the report, suggesting stronger-than-expected demand absorption.
The brokerage now expects volume growth to “practically collapse” in the second quarter, with prices rising 17% year-on-year in EUR terms, or 13% in NOK.
Fearnley downgraded Leroy Seafood Group and Mowi to Hold from Buy. The sector now carries an equal split of Buy and Hold ratings. SalMar remains the firm’s top pick, with Fearnley citing potential for upward volume revisions in Northern Norway and cost recovery in Central Norway.
Traditional players trade at 16x Fearnley’s 2026 EPS estimate, which the bank views as already pricing in the earnings recovery. On 2027–28 estimates, the sector trades at 12–10x — below the 10-year average forward P/E of 14–12x.
Fearnley raised its 2026 global supply growth estimate by 0.3% to 2.1%, with Norway revised up 0.8% to show marginal contraction of 0.2% year-on-year. The firm introduced 2028 price assumptions of NOK 89/kg and EUR 7.80/kg.
Oslo seafood equities are down 13% year-to-date against an OSEBX gain of 18%.
