Market – July 8, 2026
SalMar: stronger biology points to earnings upgrades, says SEB analyst
SalMar's stronger-than-expected second-quarter harvest volumes should prompt analysts to raise earnings forecasts, according to SEB.
The salmon farmer harvested 81,800 tonnes gutted weight during the quarter, 8% above SEB's forecast and 12% ahead of market consensus, driven by stronger harvests in Central and Northern Norway.
SEB analyst Sander Lie said the volume beat appeared to be driven by "the right reasons" — improved biological performance — rather than one-off factors.
"As such, we see scope for consensus to come up ahead of the report," Lie wrote in a research note on Wednesday.
SEB estimates the stronger harvest could lift consensus second-quarter EBIT forecasts by 8-10%, while full-year 2026 EBIT estimates could rise by 1-2%.
The broker said the outperformance in Central Norway was particularly encouraging, despite some harvesting linked to outbreaks of Infectious salmon anaemia during the quarter. Lie said any ISA-related harvesting was likely concentrated in larger fish that were already close to harvest weight, limiting the impact on underlying performance.
Harvest volumes in Northern Norway also exceeded expectations, while Iceland came in slightly below SEB's forecast. Offshore operations were broadly in line.
SEB said the update also reinforced its view that SalMar's full-year harvest guidance could prove conservative and expects the shares to outperform the broader salmon sector following the release.
SEB maintains a Buy recommendation on SalMar with a target price of NOK 610.
