Industry – July 16, 2026
Manolin: how strong El Niño could deepen cost pressures on salmon farmers
A developing El Niño could drive fishmeal and fish oil prices higher over the coming months, adding to cost pressures already facing salmon farmers from weak fish prices and rising freight rates, according to an analysis by aquaculture software company Manolin.
The report points to Peru's north-central anchovy fishery, which supplies around one-fifth of the world's fishmeal and fish oil, as the biggest source of risk. Warmer waters associated with a strong El Niño can force anchovy schools deeper and increase the proportion of juvenile fish in catches, prompting authorities to delay or suspend fishing seasons.
According to the analysis, benchmark fishmeal prices have already risen sharply since late 2025 as fishing restrictions tightened in Peru, while fish oil prices have also strengthened because both products rely on the same anchovy catch.
Manolin argues the impact could be amplified by higher container freight costs. The company noted that the Drewry World Container Index has climbed in recent months, increasing the cost of shipping feed ingredients from Peru to aquafeed manufacturers.
The combination of tighter feed ingredient supplies, higher freight costs and subdued salmon prices could prove more challenging than previous market disruptions, the report said. While salmon producers have previously navigated El Niño events, shipping disruptions and weak markets individually, Manolin said the convergence of all three pressures could squeeze margins across the sector.
The report added that although producers cannot influence weather patterns or global commodity markets, better use of farm data and production planning could help companies respond more quickly to changing feed costs.
